Archive for ‘2015 Draft’

May 1, 2015

In Day 2 of the 2015 NFL Draft, The Jets Should Select…

With Day 1 of the draft in the books, we look ahead to Day 2. In my previous post, I outlined who I wanted to see the Jets select in each round of the draft but after Day 1, my selections are already irrelevant (as if they weren’t the moment I wrote them!). Apparently my assessment of prospects more closely matches that of the NFL General Manager community than that of the mock draft community. A criteria of the rankings in my previous post was that reputable sources needed to predict the player would be available at the Jets respective picks. I used various sources to estimate which players might be available including a Mock Draft Simulator at fanspeak.com. Their simulator gives you the option of pulling big board ranking data from over a dozen different sources including CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Drafttek, and WalterFootball to name a few. I’ve tried them all multiple times. Despite that, all six of the players I had originally targeted for the Jets 2nd round pick as well as a two of the players I had targeted in the 3rd round were already selected in the 1st round. Based on who’s left after Day 1, here’s who I’d like to see the Jets select in Day 2.

Please note that the Jets should not select two OLB’s or two WR’s with their 2nd and 3rd round picks. If the Jets select Harold or Gregory in the 2nd round, they should not select Hunter or Kikaha in the 3rd round even if they are the best available according to my list. Similarly, if the Jets select Strong in the 2nd round, they should not select Lockett in the 3rd round.

Round 2, pick 38

  1. T.J. Clemmings OT, (Pittsburgh)
  2. Eli Harold, OLB (Virginia)
  3. Jaelen Strong, WR (Arizona State)
  4. Randy Gregory, OLB (Nebraska)
  5. Landon Collins, S (Alabama)
  6. Jalen Collins, CB (LSU)

The Jets should pick: T.J. Clemmings (OT), Pittsburgh

Clemmings is quite raw as he is a recent converted defensive lineman but he is capable of starting right away at Right Tackle. He has elite Left Tackle traits that need to be developed. Breno could slide inside to Right Guard and, with Carpenter at Left Guard and our offensive line stalwarts at Left Tackle and Center, we should have a solid offensive line. With a few years of development at Right Tackle, Clemmings has the potential to become a starting Left Tackle and could be groomed for Ferguson’s spot when D’Brickashaw decides to retire.

If both Clemmings and Harold are both off the board, I would seek trading partners and try and trade back.

Round 3, pick 70

  1. Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)
  2. Danielle Hunter, OLB (LSU)
  3. Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB (Washington)
  4. Tyler Lockett, WR (Kansas State)
  5. Jay Ajayi, RB (Boise State)
  6. Bryce Petty, QB (Baylor)

The Jets should pick: Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)

While not a big guy, Abdullah should be a great in the Jets new spread offense. He is a tremendous pass catcher; he had 48 receptions in the last two years without a single drop. He’s also amassed at least 1,600 yards over each of the past two years with a per carry average of a little over six yards a carry. With Ivory’s and Powell’s contracts each coming to end following this season, I think it would be smart for the Jets to draft a young talented RB with outstanding character like Abdullah.

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April 29, 2015

In the 2015 Draft, the Jets Should Select…

nfldraftFor each pick, I listed 6 possibilities in order of preference. I’ve used various sources to estimate which players might be available at our different picks including a great Mock Draft Simulator at fanspeak.com. Their simulator gives you the option of pulling big board ranking data from over a dozen different sources including CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Drafttek, and WalterFootball to name a few. I’ve tried them all multiple times and there is a fair amount of variability between them. For this year’s draft, I decided to include multiple options for each pick and then indicate which player I think will be there for us.

Please note, I do not think we should draft two players in the same position in the first 4 rounds.

Round 1, pick 6

1) Dante Fowler Jr, OLB (Florida)
2) Marcus Mariota, QB (Oregon)
3) Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson)
4) Leonard Williams, DT (Southern California)
5) Amari Cooper, WR (Alabama)
6) Kevin White, WR (West Virginia)

The Jets should pick: Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson)

With Fowler and Mariota likely off the board, Vic Beasley will be a great option for the Jets. OLB has been a position of need for several years and this draft has two OLB’s worthy of the 6th overall pick. One of the best predictors of success for a pass-rusher in the NFL is the speed of their first step and by all accounts Beasley’s first step is tremendous.

If both Fowler and Mariota are off the board, I would try and trade back. I would be fine with the Jets trading back until late in the first round and acquiring additional picks. If we trade back (and my top six players are all off the board), I’d like to see us draft an OLB/pass-rusher. In order, I’d draft: Alvin Dupree (Kentucky), Shane Ray (Missouri), Randy Gregory (Nebraska) or Eli Harold (Virginia).

Round 2, pick 38

1) Melvin Gordon, RB (Wisconsin)
2) Todd Gurley, RB (Georgia)
3) D.J. Humphries, OT (Florida)
4) Shaq Thompson, OLB (Washington)
5) Andrus Peat, OT (Stanford)
6) Breshad Perriman, WR (UCF)

The Jets should pick: D.J. Humphries, OT (Florida)

With the two elite RB’s likely off the board, D.J. Humphries would be a great addition to the Jets. He could start immediately at right tackle. Breno could slide inside to right guard and, with Carpenter at left guard and our offensive line stalwarts at left tackle and center, we should have a solid offensive line. With a few years of development at right tackle, Humphries has the potential to become a starting left tackle and could be groomed for Ferguson’s spot when D’Brickashaw decides to retire.

Round 3, pick 70

1) Danielle Hunter, DE (LSU)
2) Phillip Dorsett, WR (Miami (Fla.))
3) Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)
4) Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB (Washington)
5) Cedric Ogbuehi, OT (Texas A&M)
6) Devin Smith, WR (Ohio State)

The Jets should pick: Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)

With a pass-rusher drafted in the 1st round, even if Hunter were still on the board (which I doubt), I would pass on him. Dorsett has been moving up draft boards and will likely be gone by the time the Jets draft in round 3. I’d be very happy to see Ameer Abdullah there for the Jets in round 3. While not a big guy, he’d be a great RB in our spread offense. He is a tremendous pass catcher; he had 48 receptions in the last 2 years without a single drop. He’s also amassed at least 1,600 over each of the past two years with a per carry average of a little over 6 yards a carry. With Ivory and Powell’s contracts each coming to end following this season, I think it would be smart for the Jets to draft a young talented RB like Abdullah.

Round 4, pick 105

1) Tyler Lockett, WR (Kansas State)
2) Rob Havenstein, OT (Wisconsin)
3) Bryce Petty, QB (Baylor)
4) Senquez Golson, CB (Ole Miss)
5) Derron Smith, FS (Fresno State)
6) Davis Tull, OLB (Chattanooga)

The Jets should pick: Tyler Lockett, WR (Kansas State)

With great depth at WR this year, I think there’s a pretty good chance that he will be there for the Jets in the top of the 4th round. Lockett is a smart, high-character WR that runs excellent routes and gets good separation. While he’s a small guy (with small hands) and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling, I think he will be a solid contributor from the slot.

I was tempted to opt for Chris Conley, WR (Georgia). I think adding a burner that can stretch the field would be the perfect complement to the Jets’ current receiving corps. Conley’s 4.35 speed would be a welcome addition. However, when I evaluate WR’s, I think two of the most predictive indicators for success are college production (provided the competition was good) and excellent route running. Conley has neither. While Georgia’s offense was primarily a run-first offense, Conley didn’t have more than 40 catches in a season. Plus, at this point, he is not a good route runner. Contrasted against Tyler Lockett, Lockett had more catches in his junior year (81) than Conley had in all his four years combined (76). Lockett followed up his impressive junior campaign with an even more prolific senior campaign (106 catches for 1,515 yards and 11 TDs). While Conley’s measurables and high ceiling are tempting, given the Jets current roster, I think the Jets need to draft solid contributors with their mid round picks like Lockett. I think the 7th round is when you can take chances on guys with big upsides.

Round 7, picks 223 & 224

1) Kyle Emanuel, OLB (North Dakota State)
2) Rory Anderson, TE (South Carolina)
3) Jarvis Harrison, OG (Texas A&M)
4) Quayshawne Buckley, DT (Idaho)
5) Antwan Goodley, WR (Baylor)
6) Max Garcia, C (Florida)
7) Jamon Brown, OT (Louisville)
8) Anthony Harris, FS (Virginia)
9) Junior Sylvestre, OLB (Toledo)
10) Troy Hill, CB (Oregon)
11) Travis Raciti, DT (San Jose State)
12) Trey Williams, RB (Texas A&M)

The Jets should pick: Rory Anderson, TE (South Carolina)

While some big boards have Kyle Emanuel available at 223, others have him going much earlier. I think he’ll likely be long gone. With the 223rd pick, I’d like to see the Jets select Rory Anderson. I think the Zach Sudfeld experiment has run it’s course. With how sparse our receiving corps has been over the last several years, Sudfeld has only managed to snare 5 receptions in each of the last two years. Despite a very thin TE class, Anderson should fall to the 7th round due to injury concerns. If healthy, he could prove to be a steal in a position of need for the Jets.

The Jets should pick: Jarvis Harrison, OG (Texas A&M)

I don’t normally advocate selecting players with character issues, motivation issues or injury issues but the 7th round is where I’m willing to take fliers on players with either of the latter two that also posses big upsides. Harrison is one such guy. He has work ethic and motivation issues, but possesses elite talent. Once drafted, he could realize that he wants to stay in the league and he could become a pro-bowler or he could keep his head in it’s current position and not even make the roster. With a 7th round pick, it’s rare to draft a player with pro-bowl potential. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.

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February 23, 2015

Here’s What the 53 Man Roster Could Look Like!

The following scenario takes into account the expected 2015 $142 Million Salary Cap (adjusted to almost $155 Million when taking into account 2014 rollover), possible trades, free agent acquisitions, free agent resignings and the draft.

Maneuvering in the Draft:

These moves assume four things – all of which are quite possible but probably unlikely that all four things break our way.  In no particular order, they are: 1) Marcus Mariota will still be on the board after the first 5 selections in the draft, 2) only one WR will be selected in the first 10 picks of the draft, 3) Chip Kelly is ready to back up his professed love of Mariota, 4) the Vikings focus on drafting a RB in the first round and believe that either Gordon or Gurley will be available with the 20th pick.

As you may have surmised from these assumptions, I’m suggesting two moves (one with the Eagles and one with Vikings) to move back to the 11th overall pick and select either Amari Cooper or Kevin White.  Specifically, I would have the Jets trade their 6th overall pick to the Eagles for their 1st (20th overall) and 2nd (52nd overall) round picks this year, their 1st round pick in 2016 and Nick Foles.  This is a steep price to pay for one player but getting from 20th to 6th is a lot of ground to cover and if Chip really believes Mariota is his franchise guy, then anything is possible.  Adding in Nick Foles to the trade shouldn’t be that big a deal since the acquisition of Mariota would make Foles expendable.

The second trade would be with the Vikings.  I would love to see the Jets land an elite WR in this draft.  In my opinion (and most analyst’s), there are two: Amari Cooper and Kevin White.  The Raiders will likely pick one of them with their 4th overall pick.  I’m hoping the ghost of Al Davis is honored and they pick the speed of Kevin White.  While White has a higher ceiling, I love Cooper’s reliability and route running.  The next team likely to pick a WR is the Browns with their 12th pick.  With Adrian Peterson likely not returning to the Vikings, there’s a good chance the Vikings will target a RB in the first round.  There’s also a good chance that one or both of the elite RB’s will still be on the board with the 20th selection.  Consequently, the Jets could trade their 1st round pick, (20th overall acquired from the Eagles), one of their 2nd round picks (52nd overall acquired from the Eagles) and their 4th round pick (101st overall) to the Vikings for the Vikings 1st round pick (11the overall) and their 4th round pick (107th overall).  This trade is consistent with the Trade Value Chart (Jets giving up 1,330 value points in exchange for 1,326).  With these moves, in aggregate, the Jets would basically get Nick Foles and an additional 1st round draft pick in next year’s draft in exchange for moving back 5 picks in both the 1st and 4th rounds.  If we were still able to secure a top WR with the 11th pick, this would be a huge coup!

Going through the roster now, position by position, I’ll show whose under contract, who we should trade for, draft, sign in free agency and release.

QB

  • Under Contract – Geno Smith
  • Trade  – acquire Nick Foles
  • Free Agent Signing – target adding Ryan Mallett (if he’s not available, resign Matt Simms)
  • Note: do not resign Michael Vick

RB

  • Under Contract – Chris Ivory
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Bilal Powell; target adding C.J. Spiller
  • Note: Chris Johnson was already released; keep Daryl Richardson on the practice squad

FB

  • Under Contract – Tommy Bohanon
  • Free Agent Signing – resign John Conner and have the two compete in training camp for the lone FB roster spot

WR

  • Under Contract – Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley and Shaq Evans
  • Draft – Round 1 Amari Cooper (or Kevin White); Round 5 Chris Conley
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Chris Owusu; target Jeremy Maclin
  • Note: release Percy Harvin; allow T.J. Graham, Walter Powell, Saalim Hakim, and Quincy Enunwa to compete in camp with Shaq Evans and Chris Owusu for the 6th WR roster spot; don’t resign Greg Salas

TE

  • Under Contract – Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro
  • Draft – Round 4 Tyler Kroft
  • Free Agent Signing – target Jordan Cameron
  • Note: release Chris Pantale and Zach Sudfeld

Interior OL

  • Under Contract: Nick Mangold, Oday Aboushi, Dakota Dozier and Brian Winters
  • Free Agent Signing – target Mike Iupati
  • Note: don’t resign Willie Colon; release Dalton Freeman and Wesley Johnson

OT

  • Under Contract: D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Breno Giacomini
  • Draft: Round 7 D.J. Humphries
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Ben Ijalana

DE/DT

  • Under Contract: Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and T.J. Barnes
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Leger Douzable

NT

  • Free Agent Signing – resign Damon Harrison and Kenrick Ellis

OLB

  • Under Contract: Quinton Coples, Ikemefuna Enemkpali and Trevor Reilly
  • Free Agent Signing – target Justin Houston (in the likely case that he will be franchised, then target Jerry Hughes)
  • Note: don’t resign Jermaine Cunningham, release Calvin Pace and Jason Babin

ILB

  • Under Contract: Demario Davis
  • Draft: Round 2 Eric Kendricks
  • Free Agent Signing – resign David Harris and Nick Bellore

CB

  • Under Contract: Marcus Williams, Darrin Walls, Dexter McDougle and Dee Milliner
  • Draft: Round 3 Jalen Collins
  • Free Agent Signing – target 2 of the following CB’s (in order of preference): Darrelle Revis, Kareem Jackson, Antonio Cromartie, Byron Maxwell
  • Note: don’t resign Phillip Adams or Kyle Wilson; if Dee Milliner is healthy, allow Marcus Williams and Darrin Walls to compete for the 6th CB roster spot (and buy a lottery ticket)

S

  • Under Contract: Calvin Pryor, Antonio Allen and Rontez Miles
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Jaiquawn Jarrett
  • Note: don’t resign Dawan Landry

Special Teams

  • Under Contract: Nick Folk, Ryan Quigley
  • Free Agent Signing – resign Tanner Purdum
  • Note: invite punters to camp to compete for Ryan Quigley’s roster spot

Going through the roster now, by mode of acquisition, I’ll prioritize the different acquisitions.

By Trade:

  • Nick Foles

Free Agents from other Teams:

  • High
    • Mike Iupati
    • Justin Houston/Jerry Hughes
    • Darrelle Revis/Kareem Jackson
  • Medium
    • Jeremy Maclin
    • C.J. Spiller
    • Jordan Cameron
  • Low
    • Kareem Jackson/Antonio Cromartie/Byron Maxwell
    • Ryan Mallett

Note: Taking into account the available cap space and the cap space freed up from the players I’ve suggested releasing, there should be enough room to sign the above free agents with the exception of the unlikely scenario that both Justin Houston and Darrelle Revis are in play.  It is almost a given that Justin Houston will get the franchise tag if a long-term deal is not reached and I also believe that the Patriots will be willing to pay Revis’ king’s ransom to make another run at the Lombardi before Tom rides off into the deflating sun.

Resigning Our Free Agents:

  • High
    • Damon Harrison
  • Medium
    • Bilal Powell
    • David Harris (High if we do not draft Eric Kendricks)
    • Leger Douzable
    • Kenrick Ellis
    • Jaiquawn Jarrett
    • Nick Bellore
  • Low
    • Chris Owusu
    • Ben Ijalana
    • Tanner Purdum
    • John Conner

Daft:

  • Round 1
    • Amari Cooper, WR (alternatively Kevin White, WR)
  • Round 2
    • Eric Kendricks, ILB
  • Round 3
    • Jalen Collins, CB
  • Round 4
    • Tyler Kroft, TE
  • Round 5
    • Chris Conley, WR
  • Round 7
    • D.J. Humphries, OT

So here is the blue print Mike Maccagnan.  What do you think?