Archive for April, 2015

April 29, 2015

In the 2015 Draft, the Jets Should Select…

nfldraftFor each pick, I listed 6 possibilities in order of preference. I’ve used various sources to estimate which players might be available at our different picks including a great Mock Draft Simulator at Their simulator gives you the option of pulling big board ranking data from over a dozen different sources including CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Drafttek, and WalterFootball to name a few. I’ve tried them all multiple times and there is a fair amount of variability between them. For this year’s draft, I decided to include multiple options for each pick and then indicate which player I think will be there for us.

Please note, I do not think we should draft two players in the same position in the first 4 rounds.

Round 1, pick 6

1) Dante Fowler Jr, OLB (Florida)
2) Marcus Mariota, QB (Oregon)
3) Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson)
4) Leonard Williams, DT (Southern California)
5) Amari Cooper, WR (Alabama)
6) Kevin White, WR (West Virginia)

The Jets should pick: Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson)

With Fowler and Mariota likely off the board, Vic Beasley will be a great option for the Jets. OLB has been a position of need for several years and this draft has two OLB’s worthy of the 6th overall pick. One of the best predictors of success for a pass-rusher in the NFL is the speed of their first step and by all accounts Beasley’s first step is tremendous.

If both Fowler and Mariota are off the board, I would try and trade back. I would be fine with the Jets trading back until late in the first round and acquiring additional picks. If we trade back (and my top six players are all off the board), I’d like to see us draft an OLB/pass-rusher. In order, I’d draft: Alvin Dupree (Kentucky), Shane Ray (Missouri), Randy Gregory (Nebraska) or Eli Harold (Virginia).

Round 2, pick 38

1) Melvin Gordon, RB (Wisconsin)
2) Todd Gurley, RB (Georgia)
3) D.J. Humphries, OT (Florida)
4) Shaq Thompson, OLB (Washington)
5) Andrus Peat, OT (Stanford)
6) Breshad Perriman, WR (UCF)

The Jets should pick: D.J. Humphries, OT (Florida)

With the two elite RB’s likely off the board, D.J. Humphries would be a great addition to the Jets. He could start immediately at right tackle. Breno could slide inside to right guard and, with Carpenter at left guard and our offensive line stalwarts at left tackle and center, we should have a solid offensive line. With a few years of development at right tackle, Humphries has the potential to become a starting left tackle and could be groomed for Ferguson’s spot when D’Brickashaw decides to retire.

Round 3, pick 70

1) Danielle Hunter, DE (LSU)
2) Phillip Dorsett, WR (Miami (Fla.))
3) Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)
4) Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB (Washington)
5) Cedric Ogbuehi, OT (Texas A&M)
6) Devin Smith, WR (Ohio State)

The Jets should pick: Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska)

With a pass-rusher drafted in the 1st round, even if Hunter were still on the board (which I doubt), I would pass on him. Dorsett has been moving up draft boards and will likely be gone by the time the Jets draft in round 3. I’d be very happy to see Ameer Abdullah there for the Jets in round 3. While not a big guy, he’d be a great RB in our spread offense. He is a tremendous pass catcher; he had 48 receptions in the last 2 years without a single drop. He’s also amassed at least 1,600 over each of the past two years with a per carry average of a little over 6 yards a carry. With Ivory and Powell’s contracts each coming to end following this season, I think it would be smart for the Jets to draft a young talented RB like Abdullah.

Round 4, pick 105

1) Tyler Lockett, WR (Kansas State)
2) Rob Havenstein, OT (Wisconsin)
3) Bryce Petty, QB (Baylor)
4) Senquez Golson, CB (Ole Miss)
5) Derron Smith, FS (Fresno State)
6) Davis Tull, OLB (Chattanooga)

The Jets should pick: Tyler Lockett, WR (Kansas State)

With great depth at WR this year, I think there’s a pretty good chance that he will be there for the Jets in the top of the 4th round. Lockett is a smart, high-character WR that runs excellent routes and gets good separation. While he’s a small guy (with small hands) and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling, I think he will be a solid contributor from the slot.

I was tempted to opt for Chris Conley, WR (Georgia). I think adding a burner that can stretch the field would be the perfect complement to the Jets’ current receiving corps. Conley’s 4.35 speed would be a welcome addition. However, when I evaluate WR’s, I think two of the most predictive indicators for success are college production (provided the competition was good) and excellent route running. Conley has neither. While Georgia’s offense was primarily a run-first offense, Conley didn’t have more than 40 catches in a season. Plus, at this point, he is not a good route runner. Contrasted against Tyler Lockett, Lockett had more catches in his junior year (81) than Conley had in all his four years combined (76). Lockett followed up his impressive junior campaign with an even more prolific senior campaign (106 catches for 1,515 yards and 11 TDs). While Conley’s measurables and high ceiling are tempting, given the Jets current roster, I think the Jets need to draft solid contributors with their mid round picks like Lockett. I think the 7th round is when you can take chances on guys with big upsides.

Round 7, picks 223 & 224

1) Kyle Emanuel, OLB (North Dakota State)
2) Rory Anderson, TE (South Carolina)
3) Jarvis Harrison, OG (Texas A&M)
4) Quayshawne Buckley, DT (Idaho)
5) Antwan Goodley, WR (Baylor)
6) Max Garcia, C (Florida)
7) Jamon Brown, OT (Louisville)
8) Anthony Harris, FS (Virginia)
9) Junior Sylvestre, OLB (Toledo)
10) Troy Hill, CB (Oregon)
11) Travis Raciti, DT (San Jose State)
12) Trey Williams, RB (Texas A&M)

The Jets should pick: Rory Anderson, TE (South Carolina)

While some big boards have Kyle Emanuel available at 223, others have him going much earlier. I think he’ll likely be long gone. With the 223rd pick, I’d like to see the Jets select Rory Anderson. I think the Zach Sudfeld experiment has run it’s course. With how sparse our receiving corps has been over the last several years, Sudfeld has only managed to snare 5 receptions in each of the last two years. Despite a very thin TE class, Anderson should fall to the 7th round due to injury concerns. If healthy, he could prove to be a steal in a position of need for the Jets.

The Jets should pick: Jarvis Harrison, OG (Texas A&M)

I don’t normally advocate selecting players with character issues, motivation issues or injury issues but the 7th round is where I’m willing to take fliers on players with either of the latter two that also posses big upsides. Harrison is one such guy. He has work ethic and motivation issues, but possesses elite talent. Once drafted, he could realize that he wants to stay in the league and he could become a pro-bowler or he could keep his head in it’s current position and not even make the roster. With a 7th round pick, it’s rare to draft a player with pro-bowl potential. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.