Archive for April, 2013

April 29, 2013

In the 2013 NFL Draft, The New York Jets Should Have Selected…

Jets Draft

Round 1, 9th overall pick

  • Chance Warmack, OG from Alabama; instead the Titans picked him with the 10th overall pick.

I think that Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were rare prospects at Guard that happened to line up with a huge area of need.  I was surprised Warmack fell to us at 9 and was very disappointed that we didn’t draft him.  I would have been happy with any of the top 5 CB’s in this year’s draft and we could have landed one of them in the second round.  We could have added a future pro-bowler to Mangold and Richardson and really gone a long way to solidifying our Offensive Line.

Round 1, 13th overall pick

  • Jarvis Jones, OLB from Georgia; instead the Steelers picked him with the 17th overall pick.

Outside Linebacker has been a big area of need that we’ve been neglecting for the last several drafts.  I’m still not over passing on Melvin Ingram last year.  In this year’s draft, I thought there were three OLB’s worth taking in the first round.  With Jordan and Mingo off the board, I thought we should have drafted Jarvis Jones.  He was the anti-Gholston.  There were a lot of reasons for concern with him except when watching him play.  He was a highly productive and dominant player against excellent competition.  I’d welcome him to my team any day.

Round 2, 39th overall pick

  • Johnthan Banks, CB from Mississippi State; instead the Bucs picked him with the 43rd overall pick.

While I would have much preferred my draft to the one that the Jets actually had, I sincerely hope that I am wrong.  I did not agree with drafting Geno Smith in the second round despite his perceived value at that spot.  I actually would have much preferred taking Nassib in the 4th round if we had to take a QB.  While QB is certainly a huge area of need, I would have preferred to give Tebow and Garrard a chance this year and draft a QB next year if needed.  We just have too many holes to fill this year and the likelihood that any of the QB’s in this year’s draft class would have an immediate positive impact is, in my opinion, doubtful.

Round 3, 72th overall pick

  • Keenan Allen, WR from California; instead the Chargers picked him with the 76th overall pick.

Having Keenan Allen fall to us in the third round was a big surprise and I think that we should have jumped at the opportunity to add such value at that spot.

Round 4, 106th overall pick

  • Trade pick to the Saints for Chris Ivory, RB.  Well done Jets!

I love what the Jets did with their 4th round pick.  I think that Ivory was the Saints’ best running back on their roster but because he was an undrafted free agent and the Saints had traded up in the first round to draft Mark Ingram, have a $14M contract with Sproles, and have an established producer in Pierre Thomas, Ivory never had a fair shot at the starting job.  I think he will excel when given the opportunity to be the number one RB and is better than any RB we could have selected in the 4th round or that we had on our roster.

Round 5, 141st overall pick

  • Josh Evans, FS from Florida; instead the Jaguars picked him with the 169th overall pick.

Round 6, 178th overall pick

  • Michael Williams, TE from Alabama; instead the Lions picked him with the 211th overall pick.

Round 7, 215th overall pick

Safety and Tight End are areas of need that obviously didn’t get addressed in the draft.  If we had more cap space, I wouldn’t try and address every need via the draft but, as we all know, the current state of Jets’ cap makes it tough to do anything.

  • Chase Thomas, OLB from Stanford; instead went undrafted but signed with the Saints.

With the final pick, I think teams need to look for value more-so than in any other round.  I couldn’t believe that Chase Thomas was available.  I would have expected him to go no later than in the 4th round and was one of the players I’ve been tracking.  I would have been pleased if the Jets drafted him in the 5th or 6th rounds but when he was still on the board in the 7th round, and the Jets passed on him again, I just shook my head.  For him to fall that far, I think there must have been some negative info floating around the league that was not made public.  NFL.com actually had him rated higher than the Cowboy’s first round draft pick!

Anyway, the last time the Jets spent their first round pick the way I wanted them to was in 2008 when we drafted Vernon Gholston so I’m not going to get too upset.  One thing the draft teaches us is that none of us really know anything anyway (except maybe Ozzie Newsome).  I think the Jets draft choices give them the most opportunity for an immediate turnaround but they also carry with them the most risk.  If Geno Smith can come in and play like Russell Wilson did last year, if Dee Milner can start right away and at a high level and if Sheldon Richardson proves to be the dominant force our scouts believe he is capable of, we could be in for a very nice season.  However, when you have really high draft picks like the Jets had this year, I believe it is even more important to not miss.  The safest picks statistically when picking 1-16 (according to The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective) are at Linebacker and at Offensive Line.  In this draft we had huge areas of need in those positions and had excellent draft prospects available to us in those positions.  I think it would have made a ton of sense to draft Warmack and Jones but, that said, I wish our newest Jets the best and hopefully Geno proves to be a better seer than his new head coach… and yes, somebody did say Playoffs!

April 23, 2013

In the 2013 Draft (2.0), the Jets Should Select…

nfldraftSince the scenario I proposed in my previous post hasn’t come to fruition (Revis for a 1st, 3rd and 5th round pick in this draft), I have amended my picks.  While I was disappointed that we only got two picks for Revis, I am glad that the deal is done and we now have two early picks in this year’s draft.  This post reexamines the draft in the Jets’ current scenario, with just one additional trade.

I’d like to see the Jets make a few more moves in free agency.  I would make signing Safety Charles Woodson and WR Braylon Edwards a priority.

I know the thought of having a 36 year old defensive back sounds borderline laughable but age is, after-all, just a number.  Woodson has played at a very high level for many years.  I believe that the main reason the Jets pass defense was so stout last year despite losing Revis was the much improved play at Safety.  We’ve now lost both our starting Safeties from last season to free agency.  While I like the pick-up of Dawan Landry and am looking forward to seeing Josh Bush continue to develop, I think Woodson could add a lot to the secondary even if its just for one year.

Despite not being helped by competent QB play last season, our wide receivers are in need of significant improvement.  Hill was the only WR who consistently got open but he dropped way too many passes to be trusted.  I think our WR’s need to be shuffled around.  Santonio Holmes should be moved to the slot.  Stephen Hill needs to step up this year.  Hopefully he has invested in a jugs machine this offseason and has worn it out.  Hill should be the Z Flanker and Braylon could come in as the X Flanker.  While I’m not crazy about some of the locker room reports that seem to follow Braylon around the league, he has always been solid for us.  It could be argued that he was our best receiver last year despite only being on our roster for three games.  I would sign Braylon to a two year deal without a lot of guaranteed money so he could be cut after a year if needed.  I have the Jets drafting an X Flanker in the 4th round this year to compete with Braylon.  If the rookie doesn’t win the starting job by the end of the season, I would recommend drafting another X Flanker in second round of the 2014 draft (1st round pick should be for a QB).  I also see Kerley taking over the slot role in 2014 and cutting Holmes after this season ends.  If it were up to me, I would have cut Holmes immediately after the New Year’s Day game in Miami in 2012 when our “captain” was on the sideline when the season hung in the balance.  I know it would have been a massive cap hit but sometimes, when team dynamics are in play, you can add through subtraction.   I also hope that Jordan White gets some playing time this preseason so he can prove that he deserves a roster spot.  I really liked this late round pick from last year but he has been really limited in his opportunities to showcase his skills.

Other free agents we should consider bringing in, based on price, are G Brandon Moore, TE Visanthe Shianco , NT Sione Po’uha and either ILB Carlos Dansby or ILB Larry Grant.

One trade we should still make before the draft, and is rumored to be in the works, is trading our 5th round pick (141st overall) to the Saints for RB Chris Ivory.

After this trade, we’ll have gained RB Chris Ivory and have the following draft picks:

  • Round 1
    • pick 9, 9th overall
    • pick 13, 13th overall (from the Bucs)
  • Round 2
    • pick 7, 39th overall
  • Round 3
    • pick 10, 72nd overall
  • Round 4
    • pick 9, 106th overall
  • Round 5
    • pick 8, 141st overall (traded to the Saints)
  • Round 6
    • pick 10, 178th overall
  • Round 7
    • pick 9, 215th overall

1st Round

  • Barkevious Mingo, OLB from LSU
    • If Dion Jordan, OLB from Oregon happens to is still on the board, as unlikely as that is, Jordan should be drafted instead of Mingo.
  • Chance Warmack, G from Alabama
    • If Warmack off the board, then Jonathan Cooper G from North Carolina should be drafted.

2nd Round

  • D.J. Hayden, CB from Houston
    • It is looking highly unlikely that Ryan Nassib, QB from Syracuse, will be on the board at 39 but if he is, the Jets should draft him instead.  If he’s off the board, I think the Jets should wait until next year to draft a QB.  However, I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Jets spent this pick on QB EJ Manual from Florida State although he will likely also be off the board by the 39th pick.
    • If Nassib, Manual and Hyden are all off the board, then the Jets should draft Johnathan Banks, CB from Mississippi State.

3rd Round

  • Travis Kelce, TE from Cincinnati

4th Round

  • Aaron Dobson, WR from Marshall

5th Round

  • none (traded to the Saints for RB Chris Ivory)

6th Round

  • Jordan Mills, OT from Louisianan Tech
    • If Mills is off the board, the Jets should draft Josh Boyd, DT from Mississippi State

7th Round

  • Eric Martin, OLB from Nebraska
    • I originally had Michael Buchanan, OLB from Illinois but he has been moving up the draft boards and will likely go in the fourth round.

UFA’s

  • Jordan Kovacs, SS from Michigan
  • Michael Mauti, OLB from Penn State
  • Oscar Johnson, OT from Louisiana Tech
  • Steve Demilio, OT from Gardner Webb
  • Levine Toilolo, TE from Stanford
  • Alec Lemon, WR from Syracuse (only if we draft Nassib)
  • Marcus Davis, WR from Virginia Tech
  • Zach Rogers, WR from Tennessee
April 19, 2013

In the 2013 Draft, the Jets Should Select…

Currently we own the following picks in this years upcoming draft:nfldraft

  • Round 1 – pick 9, 9th overall
  • Round 2 – pick 7, 39th overall
  • Round 3 – pick 10, 72nd overall
  • Round 4 – pick 9, 106th overall
  • Round 5 – pick 8, 141st overall
  • Round 6 – pick 10, 178th overall
  • Round 7 – pick 9, 215th overall

Three trades we should make before the draft:

  1. We trade Revis to the Bucs for their 1st (13th overall), 3rd (73rd) and 5th (147th) round picks.  The Bucs are balking at this deal but as the draft draws closer and Revis’ recovery progress is verified, hopefully another suitor (real or imaginary) will emerge and act as a catalyst to get the Bucs to agree.  In addition to making a ton of sense for the Jets, it would also add a little more drama to the opening game to the season.
  2. We trade our 3rd round pick (72nd overall) to the 49ers for one of their 3rd round picks (93rd), and both of their 4th round picks (128th and 131st).  The 49ers have a 13 draft picks this year and a team that is among the most complete.  They will likely be looking to trade volume for quality.  According to the Trade Value Chart, the value of the three picks from the 49ers equals 213 and the 72nd overall pick we’d trade them is worth 230.
  3. We trade the two 4th round picks acquired from the 49ers (128th and 131st), our 5th round pick from the Bucs (147th) and our 7th round pick (215th) to the Saints for Chris Ivory and their 4th round pick (109th) and their 6th round pick (183rd).  While the Saints have placed a second round tender on Ivory, it’s not realistic that any team would be willing to give that considering Ivory’s limited production.  However, given that the Saints only have five draft picks this year and have a fair number of needs, the prospect of gaining an additional two picks for a player they signed as an undrafted free agent should be attractive.  The Saints backfield is crowded and this would enable them to add players where they need them.

After these trades, we lose Revis, gain RB Chris Ivory and have the following draft picks:

  • Round 1
    • pick 9, 9th overall
    • pick 13, 13th overall (from the Bucs)
  • Round 2
    • pick 7, 39th overall
  • Round 3
    • pick 10, 72nd overall (traded to the 49ers)
    • pick 11, 73rd overall (from the Bucs)
    • pick 31, 93rd overall (from the 49ers)
  • Round 4
    • pick 9, 106th overall
    • pick 12, 109th overall
    • pick 31, 128th overall (from the 49ers) (traded to the Saints)
    • pick 34, 131st overall (from the 49ers) (traded to the Saints)
  • Round 5
    • pick 8, 141st overall
    • pick 14, 147st overall (from the Bucs) (traded to the Saints)
  • Round 6
    • pick 10, 178th overall
    • pick 15, 183rd overall
  • Round 7
    • pick 9, 215th overall (traded to the Saints)

Many of the guys I’ve had on my list have been moving up draft boards and are now not likely going to be available where we’re picking.  In some cases below, I’ve made mention of who I originally wanted to draft.

1st Round

  • Barkevious Mingo, OLB from LSU
    • If Dion Jordan, OLB from Oregon happens to is still on the board, as unlikely as that is, Jordan should be drafted instead of Mingo.
  • Chance Warmack, G from Alabama
    • If Warmack is off the board, then Jonathan Cooper G from North Carolina should be drafted.

2nd Round

  • Ryan Nassib, QB
    • A lot of sites have Nassib ranked somewhere in 40‘s among this year’s draft prospects, however some mocks have him going as high as number 8 to Buffalo.  If he’s available for the Jets with the 39th pick, we should draft him.
    • If Nassib is off the board, then we should draft Zach Ertz, TE from Standford.

3rd Round

  • Travis Kelce, TE from Cincinnati if Nassib is drafted in then second round.
    • If Ertz was drafted in the second round, then the Jets should draft Quinton Patton, WR from Louisiana Tech or Da’Rick Rogers, WR from Tennessee Tech.
  • Shamarko Thomas, S from Syracuse

4th Round

  • Brennan Williams, OT from North Carolina
    • I originally had Justin Pugh, OT from Syracuse slated for this spot but he has since risen up the draft boards and will likely go late in the second round.
  • Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB from Connecticut
    • He has been moving up draft boards and some people now have Wreh-Wilson going as early as the second round.  If he is off the board, then the Jets should draft Leon McFadden, CB from San Diego State.

5th Round

  • Kevin Reddick, ILB from North Carolina

6th Round

  • Eric Martin, OLB from Nebraska
    • I originally had Michael Buchanan, OLB from Illinois but he has been moving up the draft boards and will likely go in the fourth round.
  • Denard Robinson, WR from Michigan

7th Round

  • none

UFA’s

  • Michael Mauti, OLB from Penn State
  • Oscar Johnson, OT from Louisiana Tech
  • Steve Demilio, OT from Gardner Webb
  • Levine Toilolo, TE from Stanford
  • Alec Lemon, WR from Syracuse (only if we draft Nassib)
  • Marcus Davis, WR from Virginia Tech
  • Zach Rogers, WR from Tennessee

It’s been years since we’ve headed into a season with as many holes and unknowns on our roster.  A lot of the season will depend on if guys like Bush, Davis and Ellis can step up on defense and  if guys like Hill, Smith, Colon and Goodson can step up on offense.  Oh wait… having even just mediocre QB play will be necessary too if we are to compete this season.  I am really excited for the draft and to see how our new GM does.  So far, I really like what I see.  He’s made the cap room we need, secured some low risk/high reward players in free agency and has stated that he wants to build the team through the draft.